What We've Learned About "Pathway" Completion

It is time to rethink the traditional pathway as most students don't follow a straight line

This chart provides an example of a typical California school district's "throughput" from 9th grade to and through postsecondary education. These trends have not changed in recent years.

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At Educational Results Partnership, we spent over a decade managing and analyzing data through Cal-PASS Plus. One of the clearest takeaways? Most students do not complete the traditional college pathway—not in a straight line, and often not at all.

As the typical example in the chart above shows, when we started tracking the cohort in 9th grade (rather than after high school graduation) just 24% of students in this 10-year study enrolled in a university and even fewer completed a postsecondary credential. A full 68% of students were not captured as higher education completers or enrollees by the end of the period.

While the "traditional pathway" model is resulting in completion for some students, it's not working for most. This means it’s time to move beyond outdated models that assume the majority of students will benefit from a linear journey from high school to college to career. We need a new architecture—one that translates talent and skill development in real time and connects students to in-demand jobs, regardless of where or how they acquire their skills. For postsecondary institutions, this means being more flexible, adaptable and open to offering skills development and value to historically "non-traditional" students whose career journey isn't linear.

The future isn’t about one pathway—it’s about building many on a flexible sequencing model.